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By N.Y.) Metropolitan Museum of Art (New York

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And J. PRESCOTT (1982): Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50, 1345-70. LIPPI, M. (1990): Sviluppi recenti del modello lineare-stocastico in macroeconomia. Paper discussed at the Societa' degli Economisti. , Rome. E. (1984): Studies in Business Cycle Theories. Cambridge: MIT Press. 8. H. (1975): The Monte-Carlo cycle in business activity. Economic Inquiry, 13, 303-321. P. (1982): Can "It" Happen Again? E. Sharpe. C. (1913): Business Cycles. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Analysis has become more complex with the development of new methods of time-series analysis. For instance, Altonji and Ashenfelter (1980) claim that the measured aggregate real wage in the United States moves randomly around a positive trend. This random walk with drift implies that the best predictor of the next period's real wage is last period's real wage plus a constant. Even though high persistence has been confinned in many studies, a random walk interpretation is considered as only an approximation.

1987): Macroeoconomic Theory. San Diego: Academic Press. A. (1939): Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York: McGraw Hill. H. W. WATSON (1988): Variable trends in economic time series. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2, 147-174. ZARNOWITZ, V. (1985): Recent work on business cycles in historical perspective: a review of theories and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 23, 523580. ZARNOWITZ, V. S. Boston: NBER Working Paper n.

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